Wednesday, January 25, 2006

What Would You do Here?

Had an interesting situation come up yesterday. What would you have done in my position?

I have played about 3 minutes of a $500 heads up match on Stars with someone I've never played before.

The chips were for all intents purposes level (1500 each) when this hand transpired:

He has the button and the small blind of 10. He raises to 60 and I call with A8.

The flop comes AJJ rainbow.

I check and he bets 80. I call.

Turn card comes a Queen. I check again and he bets 140. I call. (I know, I am just a calling station!)

River comes another Jack.

I check and now he types "Chop, chop".

Then, much to my suprise he moves allin!

Would you call or pass? And why?


Blogger SimonG. said...

My first reaction when reading this was "I pass."
Then I thought about it for a few minutes and I still pass.

You haven't masacred a load of chips, the blinds are still small enough for your stack to be more than playable.

But most of all, there is enough of a chance that his amateur Hollywood means quad jacks for it not to be worth your while shoving in 1300 chips to win 1500.

Against a brand new opponent, grin and bear it and let him have it, (in a sort of Derek Bentley kind of way...)

2:02 AM  
Anonymous Peter B said...

I agree with Simon: It sounds like amateur Hollywood to me.

You are in for 280. Assuming for the sake of simple maths that you are equal in ability to your opponent, a fold here gives you about a 40% chance of winning (1220 chips / 3000 total chips). If you think that you outclass the bloke, let's make it a 50% chance.

Chopping this pot makes you a, say, 60% chance. Losing the pot makes you a 0% chance.

That means that if you call you need to be not losing the pot nearly as often as you are winning the pot outright.

So, if the guy is telling the truth 90% of the time, has the nuts 9% of the time and is bluffing 1% of the time, you have a clear fold.

It becomes a call around about the 6.5% to 3.5% ratio, I would guess.

If the guy is telling the truth much less often (say, 50% of the time) then the "win now/lose now" strategy becomes tougher, because you are losing the high likelihood of the small gain that you make by calling. I would say that it approaches 30% nuts to 20% bluff (with 50% a chop).

I really think it very unlikely that a player would type "chop "chop and then move all-in on a bluff. Bluffers tend to remain quiet. He's probably telling the truth, but he only needs to have the nuts a small percentage of the time for a call by you to be negative EV.



3:58 AM  
Blogger danmonkey said...

Interesting one.

My first reaction was to pass as well.
But its a weird move to make.
My thought process: What is he beating you with? AA, QQ or Jx. He's chopping with Ax and losing with anything else.
The preflop raise means little, but adds a bit of credence to an Ax holding. The maths suggest that AA, QQ or Jx are unlikely, but the move smells strongly that its more likely than an outright bluff. On pure maths I think its a marginal decision, but with these blinds and no information on this player its probably a fold and use the information you gain at a later stage.

On the other hand a call could be a freeroll: If he has the J its almost certainly a breach of site rules and I'm sure you could get the money back through a swift complaint. That would be one angle.

4:12 AM  
Anonymous Sciolist said...

Next time I'm holding Ax in that position, I'm going to say "chop chop" too. That's smart (once).

And incidentally, I fold here. I couldn't convince myself to the neccessary 90 odd percent requirement that he's being smart here.

12:43 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Id call....

I'd call him a cunt and pass.


4:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A clear pass IMO, the reason being that he can't be certain Keith (who's been calling all the way into a scary board) doesn't have the fourth jack, unless he has it himself. The verbals are almost irrelevant.

11:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

why on earth would keith check the river if he did have the 4th Jack

3:59 AM  
Blogger LetsPlayFast said...

most players at a $500 sng aren't the "amature hollywood" type, he was simply making a move to collect the whole pot. However, a call here is insane, just on the merit of the amount of chips invested, at best you tie.

7:58 AM  

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