Wednesday, July 14, 2004

A Share of the Action

I knew it was a risky move when I posted this on the Mob Forum:

I wasn't going to bother going to Paris for the WPT next week, but I had a bit of touch at the Vic last week and I'm tempted to try and Parlay it up at the Aviation.

I just wondered if anyone would like to buy a small share of my action.

My course and distance form is pretty good. I came 15th at the Aviation in their first WPT event and 8th last year.

To help cover expenses I will sell 4% for 500 Euros and pro rata.

If you are interested email me at thehawk67@hotmail.com. If you are not interested feel free to flame or take the piss below.



I expected some piss-taking but I was slightly surprised when someone questioned whether I was justified in charging 20% juice on potential backers.

I responded to the question like this:

I don't think adding 20% is excessive. As I have left it pretty late to book, all the cheap hotel and flight deals seem to have gone, hence the expenses will be pretty high.

When a player is backed it is usual he plays for approximately 30-40% with a third being about average. I don't like selling pieces but I haven't had the rub of the green recently and this is a very expensive tournament to play, therefore I decided to try and sell about 35-40% of my action.

One thing I am pretty certain about is that my edge over the field is considerably bigger than 20%, hence anyone who buys a share is getting value.


But "KingOfFilth" didn't agree:

Camel,

I'm not doubting your ability in a large No Limit tournament but I would be very interested to here exactly how you can claim you have a larger than 20% edge over the field in a large buy-in event such as this one. Has the Bandit given you some extra training??? Or are you referring to your waistline rather than your poker skills?

In all seriousness I don't see how anyone other than the very very top pros (Devilfish, Phil Ivey, Howard Lederer, Phil Hellmuth, Jim Britton, etc) could have an edge of over 20% in a large buy-in no limit tournament. And I don't think you even class yourself as a top pro do you???



I don't consider myself a "top class pro" but I do think I have quite a considerable edge in a WPT field.

Let's guesstimate there will be 200 runners in the WPT in Paris. I would say 50 have zero percentage of winning, (Obviously not exactly zero, but as close to zero as to make it negligible) another fifty have very little chance ie up to 0.2% of winning. My estimate is that half the field have about 15% of winning. That leaves 85% for the remaining 100 players. Now clearly the best players in the tournament, Lederer, Devilfish, Ivey, Negreanu etc etc have a rather bigger share of the 85% than me. But for an investor to have value for his share then I have to have a bigger than 0.6% of winning. And if I didn't believe that I wouldn't be going in the first place.

I am grateful to the five people who have chosen to buy a share. They are all very good players in their own right and it is certainly good for my confidence they have chosen to back me. Certainly, their opinion of my play means more to me than some anonymous snipers on the Hendon Mob Forum.

I hope I can reward their confidence with a good finish in Paris..


1 Comments:

Blogger Jim "The Bandit" Britton said...

Please note, Camel has had no formal training from me. He did make enquiry a couple of months ago but did not follow up.

Jim "The Bandit" Britton
_^-^_

11:03 PM  

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